The Math Biology Seminar presents David J. Gerberry from the Department of Mathematics at Xavier University on Tuesday, April 18, at 3:05 p.m. in Morton 226.
His talk is on “Practical aspects of backward bifurcation in a mathematical model for tuberculosis.”
Abstract: In this talk, we examine practical aspects of backward bifurcation for a data-based model of tuberculosis that incorporates features commonly linked to backward bifurcation and new considerations such as the treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI) and the BCG vaccine’s interference with detecting LTBI. Understanding the interplay between these multiple factors and backward bifurcation is particularly timely given that new diagnostic tests for LTBI detection could dramatically increase rates of both LTBI detection and vaccination in the coming decades.
Via our analytic thresholds for backward bifurcation, we identify those aspects of TB’s complicated pathology that make backward bifurcation more or less likely to occur. We also examine the magnitude of the backward bifurcation produced by the model and its sensitivity to various model parameters. We find that backward bifurcation is unlikely to occur. While increased vaccine coverage and/or increased detection and treatment of LTBI can push the threshold for backward bifurcation into the region of biological plausibility, the resulting bifurcations may still be too small to have any noticeable epidemiological impact.
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